Inflation/Deflation

In a widely expected move, the Riksbank lowered its policy rate from 3.5% to 3.25% in September, marking its third cut this year. It embarked on its easing cycle in May, leading many other DM central banks, and has been sending increasingly dovish messages…

A US recession remains our base case over a cyclical investment horizon. We expect the ongoing labor market deterioration to eventually tip the economy into a recession. We therefore continue to expect the disinflationary forces to dominate the US economy…

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index unexpectedly shed 6.9 points to 98.7 in September. Both the Present Situation and Expectations components declined, by 10.3 and 4.6 points respectively. The decline in morale in September was broad-based across…

In a widely expected move, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in September. All measures of Australian CPI inflation remain well above the RBA target range. The Commonwealth Energy Bill Relief Fund and other…

Export dynamics from small open economies are a good bellwether for global growth conditions. Taiwan export orders accelerated from 4.8% y/y to a faster-than-anticipated 9.1% in August. The faster pace of growth was also broad-based among the country’s…

According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, Brazil’s decision to raise interest rates is supported by recent economic data. Back in January of this year,  they noted that Brazil would overshoot its 2024 growth and inflation…

The European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates by 25 bps in September. It did not signal consecutive rate cuts and we highlighted that the short inter-meeting timeframe between September and October provides little scope for ongoing data releases to move the…

Canadian retail sales grew by a higher-than-expected 0.9% m/m in July from a 0.2% contraction in June. A 2.2% monthly rise in vehicle sales led an otherwise broad-based increase. Ex-auto retail sales also surprised positively, growing by 0.4%. A measure…

The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.25% in September and signaled it was in no rush to lift rates further. This move follows two hikes this year, one of them unanticipated.   The signaling is consistent with dovish comments in August…

The Norges Bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.5% at its September meeting and signaled low odds of policy easing before the first quarter of 2025. The inflation backdrop does not warrant easing policy. Although core CPI cooled to 3.2% y/y in August,…