We give our thoughts on this morning’s CPI release and (lack of) market reaction. We also close our short position in January 2025 fed funds futures.
At its October meeting, the Reserve Bank Of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut the Official Cash Rate by 50 bps to 4.75%. The decision was not accompanied by an updated economic forecast or press conference and the latest forecast in August…
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) – a summary statistic of US economic data releases – increased to 0.12 from -0.42, suggesting that the US economy improved in August. Details, however, do not point to a…
The Bank of Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey – a gauge of sentiment among business owners – disappointed in September. The Current Conditions and the Outlook indices deteriorated from 49.0 to 47.8 and from…
The US election underscores three long-term trends of Generational Change, Peak Polarization, and Limited Big Government. Investors should expect more volatility around the election and should assess the results before adding more…
September nonfarm payrolls grew by 254 thousand, from 155 thousand in August, handily exceeding expectations of 150 thousand. Pro-cyclical manufacturing jobs declined by a lower-than-anticipated 7 thousand, while leisure and…
In response to the Chinese stimulus announced in late September, our Emerging Market strategists upgraded EM equities to no more than neutral. Indeed, while these measures have triggered a sentiment-fueled rally from depressed…
The bond market priced out a lot of recession risk after this morning’s employment report, and the 10-year Treasury yield has moved back into the Soft Landing Zone. We assess the data and consider whether we need to change our…
Comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Thursday, hinting at “a more aggressive” pace of rate cuts, marked a shift in rhetoric from previous meetings which signaled a “gradual” pace. The…
The ISM services PMI grew at an accelerating pace in September, from 51.5 to 54.9, handily exceeding expectations, and extending a three-month expansion streak. Growth was broad-based with an increasing number of industries (…