The global political system is destabilizing and the US will turn more hawkish in foreign policy, trade policy, or both, regardless of the election outcome. Tactically go long the dollar.
Our US Political Strategy colleagues now see 55% odds of a Trump victory, with odds of a Republican sweep at 47%. As odds of a contested election are rising, they built on their 2020 work to provide answers for next week’s…
While moving in the right direction, China’s latest stimulus measures are falling short of the mark to reflate the economy. The latest rumors extend this trend. News agencies reported discussions of a CNY 10 trillion…
The main driver of global consumer sentiment in the past few years has been high inflation. Nowhere has this been the case more than in the US, where measures of animal spirits were depressed despite a roaring economy. Today,…
Savings must either flow into domestic investment, or abroad. Saving too much, with nowhere to funnel it, is breaking China’s economic model according to our Global Investment Strategy colleagues. As China's share of…
The “core core” (ex. fresh food & energy) segment of the Tokyo CPI basket beat expectations in October, printing at 1.8% year-over-year and accelerating from 1.6% in September after troughing at 1.5% in July. The…
Our Counterpoint Strategy team believes the equity bull market’s biggest risk is the reversal of the divergence between Japanese and US real yields. Japan’s real policy interest rate differential versus the US…
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, its survey of business contacts, shows an economy that has seen little growth since early September. The Fed’s contacts confirmed the manufacturing recession reflected in other…
After cutting three times already since June, the Bank of Canada fulfilled market expectations and cut the overnight rate by 50 bps to 3.75%. The BoC sees risks around inflation as roughly balanced over its projection horizon,…