Inflation/Deflation
The post-COVID recovery has been one of excesses. Government deficits have ballooned, tight labor markets have led to a windfall of consumer spending, and equity valuations have soared on the back of lofty growth expectations. But these excesses will no longer be sustainable in 2025. Our theme for next year is Thin Is Back In. Government budgets, economic growth, and equity valuations will be leaner than investors expect. We discuss this the reasoning behind this macro view and the asset allocation implications that follow from it.
Japan: Keep Betting On Divergence…
Europe: Disinflation Remains Well On Track…
US: Disinflation Not At Risk For Now, Spending Slows Down…
Strong Consumer Confidence Increases Odds Of A “No-Landing…
Treasuries Trace A Line In The Sand For Equities…
Hot UK CPI Won’t Cool BoE Easing Intentions…
Canadian CPI Will Allow BoC To Stay The Course…
Assessing Our Equity Views…