Banxico cut rates to 7.5%, reinforcing our call to go long Mexican local bonds and overweight Mexico across EM portfolios. Inflation is within target, giving policymakers space to ease. Sound fiscal management and strong external…
Our tactical framework, which tracks the reflexive loop between financial conditions and economic surprises, points to stronger near-term growth, leaving equities vulnerable if inflation re-accelerates. Data surprises move markets,…
The Riksbank surprised with a 25 bps cut to 1.75%, signaling no further easing for now but keeping the door open to additional cuts as growth weakens. The move came despite recent inflation prints above the central bank’s forecasts.…
Australian inflation surprised higher in August, validating the RBA’s cautious stance and supporting an underweight on ACGBs. Headline CPI rose to 3.0% y/y from 2.8%, the highest in a year and at the top of the RBA’s 2-3% target…
September flash PMIs show slowing global momentum, reinforcing US equity outperformance and underweights in industrial metals. The US composite slipped to 53.6 from 54.6, led by weaker manufacturing. Europe was mixed: Services…
Low rates volatility has been a key tailwind for equities, but the fragile equilibrium leaves markets exposed to AI sentiment and inflation risks. Rates volatility, measured by the MOVE index, has drifted to multi-year lows and sits…
Median Fed unemployment rate projections are overly optimistic. The Fed will end up cutting more in 2026 than it currently anticipates.
Canadian inflation stayed contained in August, reinforcing expectations for BoC easing and supporting overweight bonds and CAD steepeners. Headline CPI edged up to 1.9% y/y from 1.7% on gasoline prices, while CPI ex-gasoline slowed…
