Inflation/Deflation
Our US Bond Strategy team put out a Strategy Insight outlining the value they see in the Treasury market. The recent rise in Treasury yields reflects increased inflation uncertainty and a higher term premium. Treasury yields now offer an attractive risk…
Chinese activity was decent in December, with GDP growth topping the 5% target for 2024. Industrial production growth ticked up to 6.2% y/y from 5.4% in November. Retail sales also picked up, increasing to 3.7% from 3.0% a month prior. New and used home…
This week, our screeners cover views on Trump 2.0, defensive US equity sectors, and a pullback in Singapore equities. Our first screener aims to hedge longer term inflation risks that Trump 2.0 will likely generate, targeting US equities that are highly correlated with future inflation expectations. Our second screener identifies several defensive sectors that are worth consideration, in case of a tactical pullback in US equities. Lastly, we pick out Singapore stocks that are cheap and high safety, should a pullback occur in the local bourse given weakening macro and technical conditions.
December US retail sales missed estimates, with the headline number printing at 0.4% m/m, a decline from an upwardly revised 0.8% in November. On the positive side, the control group beat estimates at 0.7%. Netting it all out, the report was uninspiring, and…
Two main market events defined 2024, highlighting how assets will react to economic data on the tactical horizon. The August 2024 selloff marked a positive shift in the stock-bond yield correlation, as higher odds of a “hard landing” were priced in, after…
The December US CPI came in better than expected. While headline CPI met estimates of 0.4% m/m (2.9% y/y), core surprised to the downside at 0.2% m/m, decelerating to 3.2% y/y from 3.3%. Moderation in core annual inflation was driven by both goods, which are…
UK inflation surprised to the downside in December. Headline inflation retreated below estimates to 2.5% y/y from an eight-month high of 2.6% in November. Core inflation also decreased below estimates, printing 3.2% vs. 3.5% in November. Services inflation,…
Our thoughts on this morning’s CPI release and some upside risks to inflation that could flare up in the months ahead.
The December US Producer Price Index came in cooler than expected, increasing 0.2% m/m, a deceleration from 0.4% in November. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, was flat after increasing 0.2% a month prior. Inflation is a lagging variable, as reflected by…
The December NFIB Small Business Optimism Index beat expectations, jumping to 105.1 from 101.7 in November. Most index subcomponents increased, led by measure of expectations, notably for the state of the economy and real sales. After jumping 39 percentage…