The Bank of England cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 4.5%, with two members of the MPC voting to cut 50 bps instead. The BoE acknowledged “substantial progress on disinflation”, driven by a tight policy stance and stabilized…
The January ISM Services missed estimates, decreasing to 52.8 from 54.0 in December. The move was driven by activity components, while employment and suppliers’ delivery times increased. Additionally, the prices paid measure…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2025.
While the US dollar has outperformed every single DM currency in the past few months, the only monetary asset it did not outperform is gold. The greenback is up between 5-10% against DM currencies since September of last year, but…
Trade tensions muddy the outlook for global central banks. The 2010s were an era of low growth and low inflation that called for easy monetary policy. The post-COVID era has been marked by overheating and high inflation calling for…
January flash inflation for the Eurozone slightly beat expectations, with headline HICP ticking up to 2.5% y/y from 2.4% in December, and core steady at 2.7%, above the ECB’s target. Services ticked down to 3.9% from 4.0%. The…
The January ISM Manufacturing index beat estimates, increasing to 50.9 to end a 26-month streak of manufacturing contraction. New orders rose to 55.1 from 52.1. Employment is also back in expansion. Prices paid strengthened as well,…
Trump’s Tariff ObsessionDonald Trump was elected on his promise to reduce inflation, curb illegal immigration, and expunge woke ideology. Tariffs were never very high on the agenda for most voters. Nevertheless, Trump has been…
Markets and forecasters anticipate a “Golden Age” for Trump’s America, with US growth expectations soaring while the rest of the world lags. However, this extreme optimism means that there is a lot of room for disappointment. Cooling…
The January Tokyo CPI came in stronger than expected, with headline inflation accelerating to 3.4% y/y from 3.0%, and “core core” (ex. fresh food and energy) accelerating to 1.9% from 1.8%. The jobless rate also decreased 0.1% to 2.4…