Inflation/Deflation
A weakening economy will apply downward pressure to Treasury yields, but the Trump term premium will keep long-dated yields higher than they would otherwise be. This makes Treasury curve steepeners the most attractive trade in US fixed income.
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for May 2025.
The Global Inflation Divergence…
Riksbank: A Dangerous Wait-And-See Approach…
Erdogan's rule continues to decline. Social unrest will persist, governance will erode, and the macro backdrop will deteriorate further. We recommend underweighting Turkish assets.
Inflation Focus Keeps The Fed Tight Despite Soft Data Collapse…
The Fed held rates steady this afternoon, and the timing of its next move will be dictated by whether the tariff shock to inflation is transitory or more long lasting.
European Inflation Surprise Unlikely To Deter ECB Cuts…
BoJ Stays Dovish as Japan’s Inflation Stands Apart…
Conference Board Survey Flags Labor Market Softening…