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Inflation/Deflation

FICC
The Non-US Implications Of Our Recent US Duration Upgrade

In this report, we follow up on the upgrade to our US duration stance from last week with a review of our rates views and government bond allocations outside the US. We conclude that while we now find US Treasuries to be more attractive from a value perspective, even better value is available in euro area and UK government debt.

3 years ago
Essentials
The Equity Bear Market Is Not Over
BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service continues to recommend an overweight on government bonds, neutral on cash, and underweight on equities and credit. Market technicals do not suggest this is a robust broad-based equity rally. The US stock market…
3 years ago
Essentials
Does Labor Market Resilience Necessitate Fed Hawkishness?
The JOLTS survey for April shows job openings unexpectedly rising from an upwardly revised 9.7 million to 10.1 million – above expectations of a decline to 9.4 million. The job openings rate inched up to 6.1% from 5.9% while the ratio of job openings to…
3 years ago
Essentials
Beige Book Monitor: Cooling US Economy
The Fed’s Beige Book is signaling that the US economy is losing steam following an improvement in momentum earlier this year. The release revealed that future growth expectations deteriorated. In particular, manufacturing activity was weak across most of the…
3 years ago
CoreMacro
Why Oil Is Headed To $55 (The Reprise)

Expectations for oil demand growth through 2023-24 are way too optimistic. Until these expectations fall to -0.5-1 percent, the oil price has further downside. Plus: collapsed complexity confirms that AI is in a mania, while basic materials stocks and ZAR/EUR are rebound candidates.

Dhaval Joshi
3 years ago
Essentials
Eurozone Money Growth, Bank Lending Weaken
The latest Eurozone data releases show the impact of the ECB’s aggressive monetary tightening cycle. The contraction in M1 money supply – which includes currency in circulation and overnight deposits – deepened to -5.2% y/y in April while the broader M3…
3 years ago
Essentials
Erdogan Secures Another Term
The Turkish lira hit a fresh record low on news that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan secured another five-year term following Sunday’s run-off election. Notably, despite an economic crisis (including headline CPI inflation which peaked at 86% in October) and…
3 years ago
Essentials
A US Equity Market Divergence: How Sustainable?
A major divergence has emerged between the performance of the S&P500 and the US equal-weighted stock index. Even though the S&P500 index has been grinding higher, the US equal-weighted index has failed to rally. Such a pronounced decoupling signifies very…
3 years ago
Essentials
Rangebound Then Down
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service Treasury yields will remain rangebound until the unemployment rate starts to rise. However, yields are now near the top-end of that trading range, making this a good entry point to initiate long duration…
3 years ago
CoreMacro
Macron’s Final Act
Special Report

Now that the French pension reforms have been passed, President Macron’s focus will be on the international stage. Where are the risks and opportunities for French assets created by this pivot?

Matt Gertken, Jeremie Peloso
3 years ago

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