Highlights Multipolarity will peak in 2017 - geopolitical risks are spiking; Globalization is giving way to zero-sum mercantilism; U.S.-China relations are the chief risk to global stability; Turkey is the most likely state to get…
Highlights The pace of globalization is slowing, reflecting the culmination of a decades-long process of integrating China and other emerging economies into the international trading system. Most commentators overstate the benefits of…
Hillary Clinton has a 65% chance of winning the election; she receives 334 electoral college votes according to our model. Trump still requires an exogenous shock to win. Meanwhile, the USD is poised to rally - and leftward-moving…
As the U.S. median voter is shifting to the left, redistributive policy could come into play. A strong dollar helps to achieve this goal as it results in a bigger share of labor income in the economy. EM and commodity currencies…
The Brexit vote will either usher in the complete dissolution of the euro area, or it will prove to be a blessing in disguise. Our bet is the latter, but the next few months are still likely to see heightened political uncertainty…