The European armament dynamics of the late-19th century/early 20th century are eerily reminiscent of the current post-Great Recession global arms race. Back then Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy on one side, and Britain, France and…
As third quarter earnings reports trickle in for companies in the industrial sector, it is becoming increasingly clear that achieving meaningful sales growth will remain a daunting task. There is little incentive to bet on upside…
Highlights The resilience of EM industrial commodity demand, which is helping to lift inflation and inflation expectations in the U.S., will be tested over the next few months, as markets gear up for a possible oil-production deal…
This year's surge in the S&P industrial machinery index is in jeopardy of making a full reversal, because earnings follow-through is not forthcoming. Previous sources of industry support, such as aerospace and automotive demand…
Our Treasury yield fair value model suggests that the 10-year Treasury yield has an additional +19bps of upside. Stay at below benchmark duration.
The transport group is a positive exception to our otherwise downbeat view on the relative performance prospects of the overall industrials sector. We expect consumption to continue outpacing capital spending, because corporate sector…
Stocks are flirting with new highs, courtesy of a gradualist Fed and the reduced threat
of incremental near-term U.S. dollar strength.
In a Special Report published on September 6, we made the case that the transportation sector was already discounting a deep recession, and that only a stabilization rather than acceleration in economic prospects was required to realize…