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The Russian mutiny reveals the underlying trend of domestic instability. Russian instability is negative for global stability. The endgame of the war in Ukraine is exacerbating the problem, likely pushing up the equity risk premium.

Talks of a détente are premature and there is no domestic political basis in China or the US to support a true détente. Investors should not underappreciate global risk, on the basis of a détente, and should avoid Greater China equities in the next 18 months.

We are strategically bullish on the outlook of the energy sector. Domestic and external political constraints asserted themselves, restraining the most negative impulse against this sector by the Biden administration. Go long energy versus cyclicals (ex-tech).