In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries.

Special Report

This week, we look at the sustainability of the HKD peg as the next whale to move markets, given what is happening to tariffs. After careful analysis, our bias is that it is here to stay. With the DXY dipping below 100, we are likely…

Special Report

Cyclically-speaking, the risk of global indebtedness does not appear to be acute. There are several pockets of sizeable private sector debt risk, and it is possible that the next US/global recession will cause a more pronounced economic…

The HK dollar is under an assault from rising US interest rates and a weak economy. To defend the exchange rate peg, the HKMA will continue to tighten liquidity, which will boost HK interest rates above those in the US across the…

Special Report

Executive Summary Liquidity Will Shrink Further In Hong Kong  The HKD is facing its most critical test in several decades. While the peg is likely to survive (Feature Chart), the economic costs for Hong Kong SAR will be far…

Executive Summary Liquidity Will Shrink Further In Hong Kong  The HKD is facing its most critical test in several decades. While the peg is likely to survive (Feature Chart), the economic costs for Hong Kong SAR will be far…

Executive Summary German GeoRisk Indicator  Russia and Germany have begun cutting off each other’s energy in a major escalation of strategic tensions. The odds of Finland and Sweden joining NATO have shot up. A halt…

Highlights We reformatted and added three sections to our existing trade tables: strategic themes, cyclical asset allocations and tactical investment recommendations. An extensive audit of our current trade book shows that our country…