High-Yield

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for April 2023.

The Fed lifted rates 25 bps yesterday while also signaling that the tightening cycle is near its peak. We discuss the short-run and long-run implications for Treasury yields.

Depending on market volatility during the next few trading days, the Fed will either lift rates by 25 bps next week or pause its tightening cycle. Either way, the Fed’s hiking cycle is close to its peak but rate cuts won’t be coming anytime soon.

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2023.

This report considers the outlook for the US corporate credit cycle based on a suite of economic, monetary and corporate health indicators. We conclude that both the default rate and US corporate bond spreads will grind higher during the next 6-12 months.

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for February 2023.

When does rising unemployment become a bigger problem than inflation? The Fed won't cut rates until that happens, probably thwarting market hopes of big cuts in 2H.

Fed Governor Lael Brainard delivered an important speech last week in which she laid out the intellectual justification for the Fed to soon pause its rate hike cycle. This week’s report reviews her arguments and explains how they inform our monetary policy and investment views.

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2023.

In this <i>Strategy Outlook</i>, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out next year and beyond.