Grains

We differ markedly with the U.S. EIA's assessment of the near-term evolution of oil supply and demand.

A stunning 9.9 million-barrel build in U.S. oil inventories this week failed to arrest the upward climb in prices.

The remarkable admission by OPEC's secretary-general, Salem el-Badri, earlier this week that with "any increase in (oil's) price, shale will come immediately and cover any reduction" in output only hints at the larger impact of light-tight-oil (LTO) going forward.

While the oil market looked right through the Russian-Saudi production-freeze announcement earlier this week, we believe these states may be attempting to put lipstick on the proverbial pig, to provide a plausible narrative to explain the physical reality of lower oil production in a sub-$30/bbl world.

Oil markets will continue to be buffeted by Russian overtures to OPEC suggesting a desire to orchestrate a production cut-back, while uncertainty over the Fed's next move keeps markets on edge.

The Fed will upset the rebalancing of oil markets if it misreads the current sell-off as weakness in oil demand.