According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, the domestic economy does not really explain the recent weakness in the Norwegian krone. Some of this weakness can be attributed to structural and…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy and US Bond Strategy services, the drivers of the structural downtrend in real interest rates include: demographic trends (declining fertility rates, longer life…
GeoMacro team partners with BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy to examine political reforms in Argentina. Our colleague Juan Egaña argues that the time is not right to go long Argentinian assets and that Buenos Aires must avoid the…
The market is pricing in a soft landing, but we see growing signs that the global economy is faltering. Investors should be defensively positioned.
China’s NBS manufacturing PMI declined further in July, from 49.5 to 49.4, marking a third consecutive month of contraction. New orders and new export orders underscored continued weakness in both domestic and foreign…
Republicans are favored but the election is still competitive. Equities, corporate credit, and cyclical sectors will fall until policy uncertainty is reduced.
Though hope springs eternal among global investors for big-bang stimulus from Beijing, the closely watched Third Plenum adjourned without any specific prescriptions to reverse China’s economic slump. The communiqu…
GeoMacro’s monthly Beta Report will typically perform deep dives into the most pressing macro topics of the moment. For its debut, however, it turns the microscope on its own process, explaining the team’s framework…