Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys
Executive Summary Equities Are Still Attractive Versus Bonds
Equities Are Still Attractive Versus Bonds…
Highlights There is no evidence of a decline in US corporate credit or bank lending spreads over the past few decades, meaning that any excess savings effect structurally depressing interest rates is occurring in the Treasury market. We note the possible mechanisms of action for excess savings…
Executive Summary Refreshing Our Tactical Trade List
A Post-Invasion Reassessment Of Our Tactical Trade Recommendations…
Executive Summary An inverted yield curve is a reliable recession indicator. Inversions of the 3-month/10-year Treasury slope and the 3-month/3-month, 18-months forward slope both provide more timely recession signals than inversion of the 2-year/10-year Treasury slope. An inverted yield…
Executive Summary Expansion In European Defense
Expanding Military Spending…
Due to travel commitments, there will be no Counterpoint report next week. Instead, we will send you a timely update and analysis of the Ukraine Crisis written by my colleague Matt Gertken, BCA Chief Geopolitical Strategist. Executive Summary The tight connection between the oil price and…
Executive Summary Tracking Inflation In 2022
Tracking Inflation In 2022…
Executive Summary Investors Think The Fed Will Not Be Able To Raise Rates Much Above 2%
Is A Higher Neutral Rate Good Or Bad For Stocks…
Executive Summary The Market Has Priced An Aggressive Path For US Rate Hikes
The Market Has Priced An Aggressive Path For US Rate Hikes…
Executive Summary For the Fed, maintaining its credibility with a long sequence of rate hikes that does not crash the economy, real estate market, and stock market is akin to the ‘Hail Mary’ move of (American) football. The likelihood that the Fed completes the straight sequence of eight rate…