Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys
In this report, we discuss our most important investment themes for global fixed income markets in 2023, and present our main investment recommendations based on those themes. Our broad conclusion: an environment of slowing global inflation, much weaker global growth and less hawkish central banks will be positive for global government bond returns, but problematic for growth-focused spread products like corporate bonds.
In this <i>Strategy Outlook</i>, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out next year and beyond.
This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for December 2022.
European inflation will decline through 2023, which will greatly help households and consumption. But can European inflation remain low after that?
This week we present six key investment views for 2023.
Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2023. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the next twelve months toward the end of each year.
Long-term deflationary forces in Japan are weakening, setting the stage for inflation to make a comeback over the remainder of the decade. Investors should prepare to structurally reduce exposure to Japanese bonds starting early next year. Higher Japanese bond yields will lift an extremely undervalued yen. To the extent that global growth should surprise on the upside over the next 12 months, Japanese equities could see some modest outperformance.
In this Special Report, we consider what some common monetary policy rules are recommending for the major central banks and derive conclusions on duration strategy and country allocation for bond investors. We conclude that rate hike expectations in most countries may appear appropriate given the current global backdrop of high inflation and low unemployment, but look elevated on a forward-looking basis versus slowing global growth and peaking global inflation.
What is the outlook for the European housing market amid rising mortgage rates and the energy crisis? Does housing represent a systemic risk? Can households weather the storm? And what are the opportunities, if any?
The kinked supply framework helps explain why US inflation rose so suddenly shortly after the pandemic began and why the economy is likely to experience a benign disinflation over the next six months.