Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys

What do the mixed signals sent by the UK economy mean for the Bank of England, and what are the implications for Gilts and the British pound?

The unwind of yen carry trades caused violent tremors across the globe. Was this shock a one-off event or the prelude to more troubles?

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for August 2024.

We assess the investment implications of the BoJ and Fed meetings, and give our take on the next policy moves. We also assess the impact on asset markets.

Oil markets will not be impacted by Venezuela in the near term, but by shocks from the Middle East. Maduro’s ability to stay in power in the short-term removes an avenue of oil supply relief. The same avenue is cut off if Trump is reelected. Geopolitical shocks in Venezuela could present tactical buying opportunities for Chile, Peru, and Colombia.

After this morning’s jobless claims number, we have now seen enough deterioration in our preferred labor market indicators to increase portfolio duration from “at benchmark” to “above benchmark”.

We calculate expected returns for several different US fixed income sectors with a focus on how municipal bonds stack up against the investment alternatives.

Don't buy the dip. The equity bull market is over. The US will enter a recession in late 2024 or in early 2025.

In this Insight, we look into the recent CPI release in Canada, and the possible implications for fixed-income market trades.

In this report, we present the quarterly review of our Model Bond Portfolio. Rebounding growth and political instability led to slightly negative portfolio performance in Q2/2024. As global growth starts to moderate, we continue to favor government bonds over credit. Maintain a defensive portfolio stance.