Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys

MacroQuant sees the risks to US growth as being to the downside and the risks to inflation as being to the upside. Such a stagflationary brew justifies an underweight on stocks.

Are bunds the new Treasurys? The euro and German debt are gaining favor as safe havens, but markets may be overplaying the shift. Our latest report dissects what's durable, what's not, and how to trade the dislocation.

US Treasuries typically outperform both equities and global government bonds during downturns. Recent political shifts could lessen that outperformance this cycle, but we doubt it will disappear completely.

Europe’s deflation problem is getting harder to ignore. This week’s ECB cut is just the beginning — tariffs, the euro’s rally, and softening demand all point to more easing ahead. We explain what it means for yields, equities, and EUR/USD.

Fed Chair Jay Powell’s remarks yesterday were in-line with our base case expectation that the Fed will not cut rates proactively in the face of rising tariff-driven inflation.

The combination of dollar weakness and rising US yields suggests global investors are questioning the safe-haven status of US Treasuries.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for April 2025.

Today, we publish our Quarterly Model Bond Portfolio report. We discuss how the trade war has further increased the global recession risk, but US Treasuries could underperform their global peers in the near term. We cover the fixed income investment implications in the short run and which bond markets are poised to outperform in a severe economic downturn.

Trump’s tariff shock will push Europe into recession — but it’s also triggering a powerful integration response. In this report, we lay out the tactical case for staying defensive and the structural case for going long European assets when the dust settles.