Our Global Asset Allocation strategists argue that equity market concentration is not a meaningful risk factor and does not help forecast returns. Cross-sectional concentration reflects index size, with smaller indices typically…
Investors should modestly underweight equities in their portfolios and look to turn more aggressively defensive once the whites of the recession’s eyes are visible. We think that will happen within the next few months.
European equities will face a clash of powerful forces this summer. Expect sharp swings and false breaks, creating an ideal terrain for nimble traders but a minefield for buy-and-hold investors seeking steady gains.Within this backdrop,…
Although the sell-off in the US dollar and relative outperformance of non-US stocks will pause over the coming months as a global recession begins, the fading of US exceptionalism will still cause the dollar to weaken and US stocks…
In Section I, Doug notes that weak US consumer sentiment is beginning to manifest. A wide sweep of consumer-facing companies have lowered guidance, and monoline credit card lenders shed nearly 20% over just three weeks across late…
Paradoxically, raging optimism on the US economy is making a reacceleration in growth less likely in 2025. The reaction of the bond market has made the Fed rethink its cutting campaign. Markets are also constraining Trump’s agenda.…
This is the time of the year when strategists are busy sending out their annual outlooks. Here on the Global Investment Strategy team, we decided to go one step further. Rather than pontificating about what could happen in 2025, we…
Investors have given up on European assets, which now suffer exceptional discounts to US ones. However, tighter US fiscal policy, the end of Europe’s austerity and deleveraging, the LNG Tsunami about to hit European shores, and the…