Global

Why the US could get a jobs recession without a GDP recession, as happened in 2001, and what it means for stocks and bonds. Plus, an update on the Joshi rule.

Wild hopes for US rate cuts got shattered, exactly as we predicted. But given the different incentives that the Fed and ECB now face, the relative pricing between the Fed and the ECB could widen further in the coming months. We discuss the implications for rates, the dollar, and the relative positioning in US versus European equities.

Central banks are in a dilemma whether to prioritize supporting growth or bringing inflation back to target. This is unlikely to end well. Investors should be defensively positioned.

AI, EVs, and reshoring will lead to a massive surge in demand for electricity. Carbon-free, cheap, baseload nuclear energy stands to greatly benefit from these megatrends going forward.