BCA’s House View recommends staying underweight stocks versus bonds, even in a stagflationary scenario. The US and global economies are likely to enter a recession this year unless tariffs are swiftly reversed or meaningful fiscal…
US Treasuries typically outperform both equities and global government bonds during downturns. Recent political shifts could lessen that outperformance this cycle, but we doubt it will disappear completely.
Our EM strategists advise selling into equities rebounds as Bessenomics has neither delivered lower rates nor stronger growth. The dollar’s weakness stems not from policy success but from broader market dynamics, and global equities…
The US dollar’s underperformance since Liberation Day highlights shifting dynamics in global markets, but the recent “Sell America” move is overdone. During April’s market turmoil, the dollar failed to act as a safe haven, with US…
April PMIs confirm global growth is stalling, reinforcing our overweight in government bonds and underweight in risk assets. Services witnessed the worst deterioration, but manufacturing is still contracting even if broadly stable.…
Our US Equity strategists warn that tariffs will meaningfully compress S&P 500 margins, with little pricing power to offset rising input costs. A two-point hit to net margins and falling multiples will drive earnings downgrades…
Our Commodity strategists remain defensive as both demand- and supply risks abound. Stay long gold and underweight oil and copper as increasing OPEC+ supply and tariff-driven demand risks will hurt energy and industrial metals prices…
Our Private Markets & Alternatives strategists remain positioned for a downturn. Private Equity is most threatened as tariffs intensify existing recession risks. Buyout strategies face stress from record-low distributions…
Our Global Investment Strategists remain defensive, expecting a global recession in the coming months unless the trade war de-escalates meaningfully. They maintain a year-end S&P 500 target of 4450, with downside risk to 4200.…