Germany’s June factory orders missed expectations, highlighting persistent headwinds reinforcing the case for a cautious tactical outlook on European assets. Orders fell 1.0% m/m, slowing to 0.8% y/y on a calendar-adjusted basis…
Our Commodity strategists recommend staying short LME copper outright and long gold/short LME copper on a cyclical basis. The unwind in copper, set off by the US tariff exemption on refined metal, is not yet complete. An inventory…
In response to trade uncertainty, global growth is cooling but not collapsing, supporting a cautious near-term view on risk assets. Trade disruption earlier this year raised fears of a global recession, but the data so far point…
BCA’s US Political strategists warn that Russia presents an immediate market risk, with near-term pullbacks offering potential buying opportunities. President Trump is pivoting toward ceasefires and trade deals, supported by approval…
A historic divergence between systematic strategies is creating a compelling entry point into Managed Futures. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Brian Payne, Chief Strategist for our Private Markets & Alternatives team.…
July DM flash PMIs point to improving global growth momentum led by services, but manufacturing remains weak and upside is limited, reinforcing our defensive stance. Services PMIs improved in the US, Europe, and Japan, but…
BCA’s Commodity strategists remain long gold/short LME copper and have initiated an outright short in LME copper as a cyclical trade. The US copper tariff will redirect supply away from the US, replenishing depleted inventories…
BCA’s Emerging Markets strategists remain negative on EM stocks in absolute terms but recommend a neutral weighting within global equity portfolios. Economic growth does not reliably translate into earnings per share or shareholder…
In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries.
Our Foreign Exchange strategists recommend strategic investors sell the dollar on strength, while tactical investors position for a near-term bounce. The key risk for the dollar today is a potential balance-of-payments crisis.…