According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, Germany will likely drag the overall Euro Area into contraction, even if, individually, other countries manage to avoid a recession. This slightly better…
Outside of Germany, European growth fares better than many believe. Will this hidden resilience help the euro and push German yields higher?
Germany’s IFO Business Climate index ticked up 0.3 points to 85.5 in February, in line with consensus estimates. Expectations for the next 6 months explain the improvement in sentiment among German companies (up 0.6 points…
While 2024 will see various election risks, global geopolitical uncertainty is driven by the US election and its struggle with Russia, China, and Iran. The stock market can manage local domestic political risk. But it will correct…
The German economy was a laggard at the end of last year, posting a 0.3% q/q real GDP contraction in Q4 2023 while the broader Eurozone economy stagnated. Importantly, while economists have been revising up their 2024 forecasts…
German factory orders delivered a positive surprise on Tuesday, unexpectedly increasing on both a monthly and annual basis. The 8.9% m/m increase in December came in well above consensus estimates of a 0.2% m/m decline. This…
Over the past few months, falling inflation has provided a boost to real wages in the Euro Area which returned to growth in 2023Q3 after 9 consecutive quarters of decline. This dynamic in turn improved the purchasing power of…
Germany’s IFO survey is sending a warning. The Business Climate Index unexpectedly fell for the second month in a row in January. Importantly, increased pessimism about the current situation and the outlook are driving this…
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that investors should go long German curve steepeners. Last week at Davos, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde leaned heavily against the…