Highlights U.S. Treasury Curve: The U.S. Treasury curve has flattened to new cyclical lows as the market has moved to fully price in the Fed's interest rate forecasts. Inflation expectations must rise further for those…

Highlights The ECB admits that its policy is considerably more accommodative than it would be absent the need to integrate the weaker euro area economies. But a strategy designed to integrate some is alienating others, both within…

Highlights Two big distortions in the euro area economy arose because Germany depressed its wages for a decade, and then Italy failed to fix its broken banks for a decade... ...but both distortions are now correcting. Long-term…

Highlights Easier fiscal policy will cause U.S. inflation to rise or force the Fed to raise rates more aggressively than the market is discounting. Either outcome is likely to lead to a real appreciation in the dollar. Policy…

Highlights The German 10-year bund yield rising to 1%, or the U.S. 10-year T-bond yield rising to 3% would be a trigger to downgrade equities and upgrade bonds... ...especially as the blue sky expectations for global growth in H1 2018…

Highlights Duration Checklist: Our Duration Checklists continue to point to a bearish backdrop for global bond yields. A continued below-benchmark overall portfolio duration stance is warranted. There is not enough of a difference…

Highlights The centrist consensus is breaking down across the developed world; In its place is rising political plurality, with non-centrist and anti-establishment parties gathering support; This trend is not to be feared by the…

Highlights French labor reforms stack up well against German and Spanish predecessors; We remain bullish on French industrials versus German industrials; Populism is overrated in Germany - European integration may not accelerate, but…

Highlights A major investment theme for the coming years will be the resynchronization of developed economy monetary policies. Expect substantial further convergence between U.S. T-bond yields and both German bund yields and Swedish…

Highlights The ECB can talk down the euro, but not by much. The central bank has previously expressed comfort with EUR/USD at 1.15. The cyclical and structural direction of EUR/USD is higher... ...because the euro area versus U.S.…