If the German economy contracts in the third quarter and thereby enters a technical recession, the knee-jerk response will be to blame the troubles in the auto industry. But the evidence does not support this story. German new…
The oil price impulse has a major bearing on Germany’s short term growth accelerations and decelerations. The six months ending in June 2019 constituted a severe headwind impulse. A 30% increase in oil prices in that period…
Highlights European and global growth will rebound in the fourth quarter but the rebound will lack longevity. Bonds: Expect bond yields to edge modestly higher, especially for those yields that are deeply in negative territory.…
Highlights President Trump’s support among Republicans and lack of smoking gun evidence will prevent his removal from office. Trade risk will increase if Trump’s approval benefits from impeachment proceedings and the U.S.…
Germany’s most important energy source is still oil which accounts for over a third of its primary energy use. Moreover, 98 percent of Germany’s consumption of oil depends on imports. Most of Germany’s oil…
Dear Client, BCA’s New York conference takes place next week on September 26-27, and I look forward to meeting some of you there. Because of the conference, our next report will come out on October 3. Dhaval Joshi Highlights…
Highlights Four ghosts of 2016 are knocking at the door: Brexit, Trump, Brazil, Italy. President Trump and U.S. trade policy are keeping uncertainty high. Upgrade the odds of a no-deal Brexit to about 33%. Expect limited stimulus…
This morning, the August German Ifo fell more than expected, from 95.7 to 94.3. The expectations components also declined, from 92.2 to 91.3. It was anticipated to increase. This data highlights that the global manufacturing…
Highlights Today’s equity risk premium of 1.6 percent makes equities the preferred long-term asset-class versus bonds at the current level of bond yields. The caveat is that this conclusion would quickly change if bond yields…
Highlights Duration: Global manufacturing growth will rebound near the end of this year. Much like in 2016, this will result in higher global bond yields on a 12-month horizon. Investors should keep portfolio duration close to…