Germany
January Euro area sentiment improved, but growth momentum remains limited as tensions with the US rise and reflationary ECB cuts remain possible. January sentiment brightened in the Euro area. The ZEW survey beat expectations for Germany, with both current…
Cold inflation prints and weak momentum support reflationary ECB cuts. Preliminary December national inflation readings came in colder than expected. German CPI was flat at 0.0 % m/m (1.8 % y/y), while France printed at 0.1 % m/m (0.8 % y/y), pointing to a…
Remain tactically cautious on European assets as sentiment stays mixed and leading indicators show no acceleration. Euro area sentiment data for December continued to send conflicting signals. The Sentix index slightly beat expectations, improving to -6.2…
The November Ifo survey disappointed, highlighting weakening expectations for Germany and limited near-term upside for European growth. The Business Climate Index fell to 88.1 from 88.4, driven by expectations dropping to 90.6 from 91.6, while current…
Our European Investment strategists recommend underweighting German Bunds and favoring Eurozone equities over German equities, as Germany’s cyclical rebound is offset by structural and political headwinds. After nearly two years of recession, the economy is…
Germany’s economy is regaining momentum after nearly two years of recession. Despite the ongoing cyclical rebound and fiscal stimulus, political gridlock and deep-seated structural challenges threaten to limit the country’s long-term growth potential. Investors should be underweight German Bunds and favor Eurozone equities over German equities.
Reports of a potential US–Russia peace proposal revived speculation about a ceasefire, creating short-term downside risks for European defense equities. The 28-point framework, led by Trump’s negotiator, signals that both sides are exploring terms for a…
The November ZEW survey confirmed mixed sentiment in Europe, showing growth momentum is not taking off yet. Euro area growth expectations ticked up to 25.0 from 22.7, while German expectations missed estimates, edging down to 38.5 from 39.3. Current…
Germany’s October Ifo survey was mixed, with better expectations but weaker current conditions, underscoring a fragile European outlook. The headline Business Climate index rose above estimates to 88.4 from 87.7. The improvement came from higher expectations,…
The October ZEW survey sent a mixed signal on near-term European growth, confirming limited growth momentum. Euro area growth expectations fell to 22.7 from 26.1, while German expectations missed estimates but rose slightly to 39.3 from 37.3. Current…