Highlights The Fed is the usual culprit for killing business cycles — but the Fed is on hold. This makes geopolitics the likeliest candidate to kill the cycle. The key geopolitical risks are US political turmoil, China’s…
Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party has seen a tremendous rally in opinion polls, although it has stalled at a level comparable to its peak ahead of the last election in June 2017. Another hung parliament or…
Germany is wading deeper into a period of political risk surrounding Chancellor Angela Merkel’s “lame duck” phase. The federal election of 2021 already looms large. Our indicator is only beginning to price this…
Highlights The US-China trade talks will continue despite Hong Kong. The UK election will not reintroduce no-deal Brexit risk – either in the short run or the long run. European political risk is set to rise from low levels,…
We expect Chinese policymakers to adopt a more pro-growth policy stance because they are spooked by the downtrend in their economy. While the Politburo Standing Committee has not abandoned its structural reform agenda, it…
The history of US elections since 1860 shows a strong tendency for the incumbent party to hold the White House when the sitting president is running at the head of the ticket. This is especially true when there has not been a…
The BCA Geopolitical Strategy Presidential Election Model is a state-by-state model that uses political and economic variables to predict the Electoral College vote. The model would have predicted the past five elections…