Conservatives won 364 seats last night. This comfortable majority for the Conservatives is a medium-term positive for UK exposed investments, as Prime Minister Boris Johnson is not dependent on the 20 or so hard Brexit…
Highlights 2019 was a good year for our constraint-based method of political analysis. Trump was impeached, the trade war escalated, and China (modestly) stimulated – all as predicted. Nevertheless Trump caught us by surprise…
Highlights OPEC 2.0 agreed to cut output by another 500k b/d at its Vienna meeting last week, bringing the total official cuts by the producer coalition to 1.7mm b/d. Saudi Arabia added 400k b/d of additional voluntary cuts, bringing…
China’s current economic slowdown predates the trade war and is due to its domestic financial deleveraging campaign that began in early 2017. The trade war exacerbated an existing downward trend in the economy, but was not…
The 2019 UK General Election result offers four possible medium-term outcomes for UK exposed investments: Conservatives win 340 seats or more: This comfortable majority for the Conservatives is medium-term positive for UK exposed…
Highlights We expect tensions from the Sino-US trade war to marginally ease in 2020, in the run-up to the US presidential election. The “Phase One” trade deal will likely be signed with a good possibility of some tariff…
Our sister BCA Geopolitical Strategy Service has introduced a Presidential Election Model that uses political and economic variables to predict the Electoral College vote on the state-by-state level. The model would have predicted the…
If Chinese growth can stabalize, then Europe’s economy can recover and European political risk will be a “red herring” in 2020, as it was in 2019. Euro Area break-up risk has subsided after a series of…
It is too soon to declare that Trump’s presidency is finished. On the contrary he is slightly favored to win reelection. President Trump’s low approval rating does not prohibit him from reelection. While historically…