Highlights Over the past year we have discussed “peak polarization” for the United States with many clients. We have held the contrarian view that political animosities within the US are nearing their peak. Feature Prior to…
Last Friday, BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service assessed that the risk of another major Sino-US clash has risen. As President Trump comes to realize he is losing his grip on power, he will have an incentive to…
Highlights The near-term is fraught with risk for US equities and global risk assets. Investors concerned over uncertainty, a slow recovery, and economic aftershocks must also guard against geopolitics. COVID-19 is not a victory for…
Highlights Europe’s dirty little secret: Euro area debt is already mutualised. Investment implication: Overweight Italian BTPs, underweight German bunds, and overweight the euro on a structural (2-year plus) horizon. ESM plus…
Highlights The pandemic has a negative impact on households and has not peaked in the US. But a depression is likely to be averted. Our market-based geopolitical risk indicators point toward a period of rising political turbulence…
US President Trump’s approval rating has fallen amid the pandemic. It is now deviating from that of President Obama in 2012. Our Geopolitical Strategy argues that Trump is no longer favored to win reelection. Trump apparently…
Feature We are downgrading US President Donald Trump’s odds of winning election. We now consider him an underdog. Since November 2018 we had given Trump a 55% chance of victory – and when former Vice President Joe…
Last Friday, BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service determined that government health policy is the key to a durable market rebound. The global financial meltdown continues despite massive monetary and fiscal…