The SPX has broken out to fresh recovery highs defying recent rising political and geopolitical risks. The reopening of the economy is the primary driver of renewed market euphoria, along with the ongoing easy fiscal and monetary policies…
Highlights There are no atheists in foxholes, and no Austrians ahead of this election: Republican senators and White House staffers may grumble about giveaways, but they cannot risk being painted as the Grinch who Stole Essential…
BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy team analyzed some near-term geopolitical risks to the rally. They recommend a tactically defensive stance. The rally faces significant near-term risks because of the potential for…
Highlights China is taking advantage of global chaos to solidify its sphere of influence – beginning with Hong Kong. The crisis is also motivating the European Union to link arms more tightly through a symbolic step toward…
An analysis on Turkey is available below. Highlights Due to the sizable stimulus announced by the NPC, we are upgrading our outlook for Chinese growth for this year. Nevertheless, in terms of investment strategy, we are…
Highlights Risk assets continue to ignore the dire state of the economy. “Don’t fight the Fed” will dictate investment policy for the coming months. Populism and supply-chain diversification will…
BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service argues that China is susceptible to a series of historic shifts accelerated by the pandemic. China no longer primarily channels its savings into export manufacturing. Instead it invests…
Highlights Higher OPEC 2.0 production in 2H20 – likely beginning in 3Q20 – will be required to keep Brent prices below $50/bbl going into the US presidential elections, which arguably is the primary driver of prices in the…
Last Friday, BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service concluded that Biden/Obama redux is the best shot for Dems to beat Trump. Biden is currently mulling his pick for the vice-presidential candidate. None of the…