Europe is about to become President Trump’s next target. The good news: a US/EU trade war will be short as common ground to achieve a deal exists. The bad news: European assets remain at the mercy of heightened uncertainty. How…
Our Geopolitical strategists published a Special Report discussing President Trump’s rhetoric on territorial expansion in North America, Greenland, and Panama. The biggest surprise of Trump’s first weeks in office has not been…
China’s Caixin PMIs decelerated in January, with the composite ticking down to 51.1 from 51.4. The decrease was driven by both manufacturing, which fell to 50.1 from 50.5, and services, which fell from 52.2 to 51.0. The data is…
Our China Investment strategists assessed the impact of increased US tariffs on China. The latest US tariff hike on Chinese imports is expected to cut China’s GDP growth by 0.6 percentage points in 2025, primarily through a 2.5-…
While the US dollar has outperformed every single DM currency in the past few months, the only monetary asset it did not outperform is gold. The greenback is up between 5-10% against DM currencies since September of last year, but…
Our Global Investment strategists offered their initial thoughts on the nascent US trade war with its allies, with a few longer-term takeaways. President Trump’s decision to delay Mexico tariffs on Monday highlights the…
The ECB cut its deposit rate to 2.75%, as was widely anticipated. President Christine Lagarde did not provide any fireworks, but the Governing Council’s message was clear: Policy is restrictive, and inflation will fall further. As a…
Our Geopolitical Strategy team modeled several of the Trump administration’s most disruptive policies in a simple game theory framework. The Trump administration’s policies have created a complex web of trade and foreign…
