BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service analysis concludes that a recession during the first half of an election year should not rule out an incumbent. We may well be forced to upgrade Trump’s odds of winning if…
Highlights The great political surprises of 2016 are approaching key deadlines on November 3 and December 31. Investors should not let Brexit take their eye off the US election. Globalization will retreat faster under Trump regardless…
BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service analyzes the potential consequences of a contested election. The constitutional power to count the Electoral College votes, and to determine the election if the college is…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy We are introducing a structurally constructive US equity market view with an SPX 7000 target for year 2028 on the back of peak cycle EPS of $310 and peak cycle P/E multiple of 23. The reopening of the…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, Abenomics will remain Japan’s economic policy, even if a dark horse candidate wins the Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership race. The major failure…
Highlights Abenomics was working – prior to trade war and COVID-19 – and it will remain Japan’s economic policy setting, albeit in a new guise. This is true even if a dark horse candidate wins the Liberal Democratic…
Recommended Allocation Chart 1Only Internet Stocks Have Kept On Rising It has been a very strange bull market. Although global equities are up 52% since their bottom on March 23rd, the rally has been limited largely to…
BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service’s quantitative election model now shows Florida as a toss-up state with a 50% chance of flipping back into the Republican fold. As long as the economy continues…