Following yesterday’s proposal of skinny, targeted fiscal stimulus by President Trump, BCA Research’s geopolitical strategists curtailed the odds of any significant stimulus deal ahead of the election to 20%. The…
Highlights Three tail risks will continue to dominate the FX market narrative in the coming weeks: The upcoming November elections, Brexit, and the new wave of COVID-19 infections. As such, markets remain vulnerable in the near term…
Highlights President Trump’s contraction of COVID-19 will buy him some voter sympathy but it will not change the game in the US election unless he perishes from the disease (unlikely), or Senate Republicans agree to a new relief…
According to BCA Research's Global Asset Allocation, investors should put on some hedges against a tricky two months. Vix futures are pricing in elevated risks in November but not yet through December. It’s only a…
Highlights The first presidential debate does not change our subjective judgment on Trump’s odds of victory (35%), but our quantitative election model is flagging a major risk to this view. The V-shaped economic recovery is…
Highlights Near-Term Uncertainties: Investors have grown a bit more nervous in recent weeks, amid signs of a second wave of the coronavirus in Europe and with the contentious US presidential election only five weeks away. The pro-…
Dear Client, We are sending you our Quarterly Strategy Outlook today, where we outline our thoughts on the macro landscape and the direction of financial markets for the rest of the year and beyond. We will also be hosting a webcast…
Highlights Senate Republicans would be suicidal not to agree to a fiscal relief bill before the election. Democrats are still offering a $2.2 trillion package. Grassroots Republican voters will forgive Republicans for blowing out the…