BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service is upgrading Trump’s odds of winning to 45%. BCA has bet on a Democratic sweep all year. Incumbent parties rarely survive recessions, and President Trump has mishandled the…
Highlights Global Duration: US Treasury yields have started to creep higher and the move is likely to continue in the coming months regardless of who wins the White House. Reduce overall global duration exposure to below-benchmark,…
Highlights We are upgrading Trump’s odds of winning to 45%. We have bet on a Democratic sweep all year. Incumbent parties rarely survive recessions, and President Trump has mishandled the pandemic. However, our updated…
Jacinda Ardern’s Labor Party won a landslide victory in New Zealand’s Saturday election. In the 2017 election, Ardern’s Labor failed to win the most seats but formed a government with coalition support from the…
As we have previously argued, BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service's quantitative Senate election model suggests Democrats will win control, but there is a chance greater than the consensus believes that…
Highlights Duration: Prospects for more pre-election fiscal stimulus are slim. But with the Democrats gaining ground in the polls, the bond market will stay focused on rising odds of a blue sweep election and greater fiscal stimulus in…
Highlights Both public opinion polls and betting markets suggest that Joe Biden will become President, with the Democrats gaining control of the Senate and retaining the House of Representatives. Such a “blue wave” would…
Highlights President Trump is waffling on fiscal relief. Our constraints-based framework still points to a deal, but the odds have clearly fallen. US and global stocks have rallied despite the fiscal failure. Markets evidently believe…