BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service recently discussed potential cabinet picks in a Biden administration, and argued that they would confirm the “return to normalcy” theme and hence will be market-…
Highlights The vaccine promises an eventual return to “normal” life – just as Americans voted to “return to normalcy.” Markets are cheering and hinting at an eventual rotation into value stocks. The…
Highlights US inflation expectations will moderate, and US real yields will rise. This will support the US dollar. The potential rebound in the US dollar will cap any upside in EM ex-TMT stocks. Rising US real yields are a risk to…
Highlights US Election & COVID-19: Joe Biden’s apparent victory in the US presidential race, as well as the announcement of a potential successful COVID-19 vaccine trial, are both bond-bearish outcomes. This is especially so…
Highlights According to betting markets, Joe Biden is likely to become the 46th US president, with the Republicans maintaining control of the Senate. Such a balance of power could produce less fiscal stimulus than any of the other…
Highlights Biden’s chances of winning the US election are rising, but it is still unsettled and could bring negative surprises to financial markets. The fiscal cliff will not subside immediately as the Senate Republicans have…
As we go to press, the outcome of the US presidential election remains unresolved. BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service's base case of a Biden win combined with a GOP Senate may come to pass, and was the most…
Highlights Our base case of a Biden win with a GOP Senate may come to pass. But the US election is not over yet. Trump still has a chance of victory by winning Pennsylvania and one other state. If the vote count does not settle the…
The 14th Five-Year Plan has more strategic importance than in the past decade. Spending on national defense, technological self-sufficiency, public welfare and green energy will likely see substantial increases under the guidelines…