Highlights We are hesitant to call a top to the volatility spike just yet. The US dollar is experiencing a counter-trend bounce. We also see political and geopolitical risks flashing yellow. House Democrats are drafting a…
Highlights Biden’s initial political capital is moderate-to-strong according to our Political Capital Matrix. He will pass his American Rescue Plan and one or two budget reconciliation bills over the next 18 months. Investors…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, it is not wise to bet against a new president’s major legislative initiatives – especially when his party controls Congress, however narrowly. US fiscal…
Highlights In the wake of COVID-19, the low-probability, high-impact “Black Swan” event is as relevant as ever. Investors should already expect US terrorist incidents, a fourth Taiwan Strait crisis, and crises involving…
BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service concludes that structural reform is coming to the United States in the wake of the riotous 2020 election cycle. The incoming administration of President-elect Joe Biden will…
Yesterday, Matteo Renzi pulled out of the center-left coalition currently governing Italy. The former PM believes he can improve his party’s standing in parliament. The Conte government will try to create a new…
Highlights Structural reform is coming to the US in the wake of the riotous 2020 election cycle. Extreme levels of political polarization will subside, albeit remaining relatively elevated. This will smooth the way to a more proactive…
According to BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service, the odds of a major US fiscal spending boost from the incoming Biden Administration, both in the short-run and over the medium term, are now much higher…