Highlights We are lowering our expectation for oil-demand growth this year, bringing it more in line with levels expected by OPEC, the IEA and EIA. Our GDP-driven demand estimates have proven too bullish for 1Q21, considering the…
Highlights The American Rescue Plan Act confirms the shift to “Big Government” and proactive fiscal policy in US politics. This sea change in policy is durable for now, given that Democrats can pass one or two more budget…
Highlights The report from last week’s National People’s Congress (NPC) indicates a gradual pullback in policy support this year. Fiscal thrust will be neutral in 2021, whereas the rate of credit expansion will be slightly…
The CDU’s historic defeats in Baden-Wurttemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate regional elections over the weekend highlight the risk of a change in government in Germany later this year. Our Geopolitical Strategists…
Highlights The Biden administration’s early actions suggest it will be hawkish on China as expected – and the giant Microsoft hack merely confirms the difficulty of reducing strategic tensions. US-China talks are set to…
Highlights The US has largely passed a “stress test” of its political system. Rule of law is intact. The US dollar and treasuries may fall further due to cyclical and macro developments but not due to a structural loss of…
Highlights The Senate will pass the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan largely as it stands. Markets will now turn to Biden’s second major reconciliation bill for FY2022 – the one with tax hikes. Democrats will go forward…
Highlights Market-based geopolitical analysis is about identifying upside as well as downside risk. So far this year upside risks include vaccine efficacy, coordinated monetary and fiscal stimulus, China’s avoidance of over-…