Highlights Our 80% odds that Biden will pass the $2.3 trillion American Jobs Plan stem from public opinion as well as Democratic control of Congress. Voters favor both higher taxes on corporations and higher infrastructure spending,…

Highlights The Biden administration is combining Trumpian nationalism with a renewed push for US innovation in a major infrastructure bill that is highly likely to become law. Populism and Great Power struggle with China and Russia are…

Highlights The Biden Administration's $2.25 trillion infrastructure plan rolled out yesterday will, at the margin, boost global demand for energy and base metals more than expected later this year and next.  Global GDP growth…

Highlights President Biden’s $2.4 trillion “American Jobs Plan” is a major US public investment that will dispel any endogenous deflationary tail risk from the US economy this cycle, increase inflation expectations…

  The BCA Research Global Asset Allocation (GAA) Forum will take place online on May 18th. We have put together a great lineup of speakers to discuss issues of importance to CIOs and asset allocators. These include the latest thinking…

Special Report

The inflation/deflation debate has been dominating the news flow and we are compelled to offer our thoughts in two-part series of Special Reports on this widely discussed, but also widely misunderstood topic. Over the past year, we…

Highlights Biden’s policy on China is hawkish so far, as expected, but temporary improvement is possible. We are cyclically bearish on the dollar but are taking a neutral tactical stance as the greenback’s bounce could go…

Highlights Biden has enough political capital to pass at least one more major piece of legislation. The next major bill will increase the budget deficit further, adding additional stimulus, though it will consist of structural reforms…

Highlights The Federal Reserve’s ultra-dovish stance is not the only reason for markets to cheer. The US is booming, China is unlikely to overtighten monetary and fiscal policy, and Europe remains a source of positive political…