The Bank of Russia raised the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.0% on Friday, 25 bps more than expected. The central bank also increased its 2021 inflation forecast to 4.7-5.2% and argued that inflationary risks…
Global fiscal stimulus remains strong and will likely peak this year. Our Geopolitical Strategy service updated its long-running tally of global fiscal stimulus to bring it into line with the latest statistics from the IMF on net…
Highlights Geopolitical risk is rising once again after a big drop-off in risk during the pandemic and snapback. The Biden administration faces three critical foreign policy tests: China/Taiwan, Russia/Ukraine, and Israel/Iran.…
Highlights Stronger global growth in the wake of continued and expected fiscal and monetary stimulus, and progress against COVID-19 are boosting oil demand assumptions by the major data suppliers for this year. We lifted our…
Highlights Biden will host a global summit for Earth Day on April 22-23, giving public attention to his climate change policy push. Investors should count on Biden’s green infrastructure package becoming the bulk of his climate…
The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index’s sharp descent has stopped for now. Market instruments that are sensitive to geopolitical risk corroborate the signal from the global uncertainty index. For example, gold has…
Highlights Continued upgrades to global economic growth – most recently by the IMF this week –will support higher natgas prices. In our estimation, gas for delivery at Henry Hub, LA, in the coming withdrawal season (…