Special Report

Investors should bet against the global rally in risk assets and maintain a defensive positioning until recession risks verifiably abate.

Investors should bet against the global rally in risk assets and maintain a defensive positioning until recession risks verifiably abate.

Special Report

Our recommendations for podcasts (on macro and markets, as well as non-work-related topics) to try over the holidays.

Prefer government bonds over stocks, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and large caps over small caps. Favor North America over other markets. Favor emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America over Greater China, Turkey,…

Special Report

Prefer government bonds over stocks, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and large caps over small caps. Favor North America over other markets. Favor emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America over Greater China, Turkey,…

Special Report

In this report, we argue that the dollar will enter a volatile trading range, before a bear market begins in earnest. That said, fundamental forces are aligning for US dollar downside.

Special Report

Investors should maintain a conservative and defensive strategy until recession risks are clearly reduced.

Our best calls of the year were long defensives over cyclicals, short Russia and emerging Europe, long aerospace/defense, short Greater China, and long Latin America. Our worst call of the year was long cyber security stocks.

The S&P 500 is down by 17% year to date, while our portfolio is up 15%. US political analysis is essential for investors but it is best done by geopolitical method rather than Washington punditry.