According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, despite temporary hurdles, the longer-term trends support an overweight in Defense. Global military spending is poised for significant increases as the world system…
President Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party emerged as the winner of the Turkish general election which was concluded yesterday. This victory means that their expansive policies of the past decade will continue, and…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, in game theoretical terms, the debt ceiling standoff is the Parent-Child game, in which ‘the child’ can be good or bad, and ‘the parent’ can punish…
The debt ceiling game’s endpoint will avoid default only if it implies economic pain. For the Republicans, the best strategy is not to lift the debt ceiling unless the Democrats cut spending a lot, or unless the economy starts to…
Investors should expect high volatility and a selloff in US stocks over the short run due to the higher-than-usual risk of technical default. Investors should seek shelter in defensive sectors and large cap stocks. Long-dated…
Results of Turkey’s presidential election show incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan securing 49.5% of the votes in Sunday’s contest – ahead of his rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s 44.9%. Although Erdogan…
The Turkish presidential election will go to a runoff in two weeks, but President Erdogan outperformed his opinion polls. His party, the incumbent AKP, won a majority in parliament. This outcome rewards Turkey’s inflationary policies…
Chinese economic data sent a disappointing signal about the country’s economic recovery. CPI inflation moderated to 0.1% y/y – its slowest pace since February 2021. Similarly, the pace of decline in producer prices…
Erdogan will most likely lose the Turkish election but it could go onto a second round. A strong opposition majority in the assembly would justify a tactical overweight in Turkish equities on a relative basis. For now, go long…