The no-deal option is the default scenario if an agreement is not finalized by the Halloween deadline and no further extension is granted. However, Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow recently stated that the prime…
Our Geopolitical Strategy service attempts a conservative, back-of-the-envelope method for estimating the probability of passage. It runs like this: There is a 50% chance a progressive wins the Democratic nomination. We…
In the lead up to the 2016 U.S. presidential election, Hillary Clinton, a health care reformer (though importantly NOT a Medicare for All advocate) was polling well ahead of Donald Trump. Health care stocks underperformed the…
On March 6 our Geopolitical Strategy team argued that a deal had a 50% chance of getting settled by the June 28-29 G20 summit in Japan, with a 30% chance talks would totally collapse. Since then, they have reduced the odds of a…
China dominates global production and export markets, so this would be a serious disruption in the near term. Global sentiment would worsen, weighing on all risk assets, and tech companies and manufacturers that rely on rare…
The Sino-U.S. trade war is heating up further. After veiled threats of curtailing rare earth shipments to the West, Chinese policymakers are now announcing their preparation of a blacklist of “unreliable” entities.…
Highlights So What? U.S.-China relations are still in free fall as we go to press. Why? The trade war will elicit Chinese stimulus but downside risks to markets are front-loaded. The oil risk premium will remain elevated as Iran…
Highlights In the political economy of oil, an awareness of the speed at which policy in systematically important states can change can restrain risk taking and investment. This can keep markets in an agitated state of anticipation,…
Highlights The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance is slightly accommodative for the U.S., but it is too tight for the rest of the world. Inflation is likely to slow further before making a durable bottom toward year-end.…