Japan and the East China Sea: Japan’s top military official – General Koji Yamazaki – recently warned that Chinese military intrusions are increasing around the disputed Senkaku (Diaoyu) islands in the East…
Chinese money and credit growth, especially forward-looking liquidity indicators such as M2 relative to GDP, have bottomed. Historically, this led the cycle by a few months. The drop in Chinese bond yields is also reflationary,…
Highlights So What? Tariffs and currency depreciation will likely lead to military saber-rattling in Asia Pacific. Why? President Trump is not immune to the market’s reaction to his trade war escalation. Yet China’s…
Dear Client, In addition to this week’s Global Investment Strategy report, I am sending you a Special Report on Japan written by Amr Hanafy, Research Associate of BCA’s Global Asset Allocation service. Best regards, Peter…
The MSCI Hong Kong index has also significantly underperformed the global benchmark since late-July, in response to intensifying protests in the city. The protests have been driven by underlying socio-economic factors as well…
Just as it appeared the slowdown in global industrial activity had run its course, commodity markets face another test of demand resiliency brought on by exogenous political shocks (Chart Of The Week). As luck would have it, these…
The move is not unprecedented - the U.S. accused China of currency manipulation from 1992-94 - but our Geopolitical Team argues that the U.S. and China have experienced a structural break in relations that is the fundamental…
All of Boris Johnson's moves, since he took over, were anticipated – hence the decline in our Geopolitical Strategy Service's GeoRisk indicator – but the pound sterling is falling now that the confrontation is…
Politicians have to pay attention to the opinion polls as well as the referendum result, since opinion polls impact the next election. These show a plurality in favor of remaining in the EU and a strong trend against Brexit since…
First, the Federal Reserve dashed investors’ hopes for an extended easing cycle. While the Fed did cut rates by 25 basis points and pledged to end its balance sheet runoff in August (two months earlier than previously…