The outgoing Biden administration has launched a slew of macro-relevant executive orders and regulatory actions. The one with immediate macro implications are the sanctions against Russian oil traders and its “dark fleet” of oil…
China’s December trade data was positive, with exports in USD terms rebounding to 10.7% y/y from 6.7% in November, and imports rebounding to 1.0% from -3.9%. Taken at face value, the numbers are positive for both the Chinese and…
Our Geopolitical Strategy colleagues published their annual “Black Swan” report, where they outline low-odds scenarios that could have a major impact on financial markets. Here is the 2025 edition: China’s Policy Reversal: A…
The global economy is subject to numerous cycles displaying reflexivity and feedback loops. One of these is the relationship between financial conditions and growth. Given this relationship, economic strength can plant the seeds of…
Every year we highlight five low-odds scenarios that would have a major impact on global financial markets if they happened. This year we contemplate a total reversal of Chinese policy, a US-Iran nuclear deal, a breakdown of NATO, US…
Oil prices have broken out above resistance from a tight trading range since the holidays. We attribute this latest rally to geopolitical tremors more than a vote of confidence from markets on global growth given softening data.…
Our GeoMacro strategists published their Alpha Report, outlining their view that President Trump will have to pare back his fiscal ambitions to avoid a bond market riot. The long end of the US bond market continues to sell off,…
Our US equity strategists just published their annual outlook, where they discuss the environment and rotation they foresee in 2025, which is more bullish than our House View. Our colleagues see Trump 2.0 policies…
The USD has steamrolled both DM and EM currencies since the US election. Among the victims was the Chinese yuan, with USDCNY strengthening towards 7.3, a multi-year resistance level, from 7.11 on the day of the election. The CNY…