Geopolitics

Venezuelan crude output is unlikely to alter the global oil market outlook for this year. However, US control of Venezuelan crude is a risk to Canadian oil sands producers and Canadian oil prices. Go long US oil refiners/short Canadian oil producers. 

The first week of January is always the most difficult for investment strategists. The annual outlook is usually penned in early December. Ours went to your inbox on December 2, perhaps too early to get a read on the next 12 (really 13!) months. But between the publication of the outlook and the…

2026 will see geopolitical risk move sideways globally as the US pursues a ceasefire in the proxy war with Russia and a tariff truce with China ahead of midterm elections that will produce gridlock.

We got Trump's tariff shock and backtracking correct and predicted Israel's attack on Iran. But we missed the China rally — and there is still no Ukraine ceasefire.

On purely macroeconomic terms, the US economy appears to be heading towards a recession. But the whole point of our framework – GeoMacro – is to forecast the interplay between politics, geopolitics, and macro. The White House is taking control of the Fed in 2026 and, together, they will look to re-lever the US consumer.