Geopolitical Regions
Executive Summary In this first of a regular series of ‘no holds barred’ conversations with a concerned client we tackle the hot topic of inflation. Month-on-month US core inflation has already peaked, 12-month US core inflation is about to peak, and demand destruction will ultimately pull…
Executive Summary Macron Still Favored, But Le Pen Cannot Be Ruled Out
Le Pen And Other Hurdles (GeoRisk Update…
Executive Summary The Ukraine war reinforces our key view that commodity producers will use their geopolitical leverage this year. The market is growing complacent again about Russian risks. Iran is part of the same dynamic. If US-Iran talks fail, as we expect, the Middle East will…
Executive Summary Long Small Cap Energy Versus Large Cap
Investment Takeaways…
Highlights There is no evidence of a decline in US corporate credit or bank lending spreads over the past few decades, meaning that any excess savings effect structurally depressing interest rates is occurring in the Treasury market. We note the possible mechanisms of action for excess savings…
Executive Summary The Good: There are compelling reasons to believe the Ukraine war will not break out into a broader NATO-Russia war, i.e. World War III. The Bad: The 1945 peace settlement is breaking down and the world is fundamentally less stable. Even if the Ukraine war is contained,…
Due to travel commitments, there will be no Counterpoint report next week. Instead, we will send you a timely update and analysis of the Ukraine Crisis written by my colleague Matt Gertken, BCA Chief Geopolitical Strategist. Executive Summary The tight connection between the oil price and…
Executive Summary Major EM’s Defense Spends Will Be Comparable To That Of Developed Countries
Beware EMs That Borrow Too Much Or Wage War…
Executive Summary The conflict in Ukraine will grind on until Kiev and the coastal cities fall and Russia is able to seat a government that will keep the country firmly within its sphere of influence. Rallies on slight hopes for an end to hostilities suggest that equities have more downside…
Executive Summary Failure Of Iran Deal Tightens Oil Supply
Failure Of Iran Deal Tights Oil Supply…