Highlights Either go long Eurodollar / short Euribor June 2019 interest rate futures. Or long the U.S. 5-year T-bond / short German 5-year bund. Or long euro/dollar (though our preferred long euro expression is long euro/pound near…
Highlights Trump's agenda has not derailed ... at least not yet; Europe remains a red herring ... as the Dutch showed; Turkey cannot restart Europe's immigration crisis; Supply-side reforms are still likely in France; The…
Highlights We discuss three "battles" that will shape the investment landscape in the euro area over the remainder of the decade. Battle #1: Reflation Versus Deleveraging - Reflation will triumph over the next 12 months. For…
Highlights Nothing in Trump's congressional address changes our outlook from November; Trump has reaffirmed his commitment to mercantilism; Investors should continue to favor small caps over large caps; We expect Trump to get…
The Tactical Asset Allocation model can provide investment recommendations which diverge from those outlined in our regular weekly publications. The model has a much shorter investment horizon - namely, one month - and thus attempts to…
Highlights Markets are facing large tail risks - both negative and positive; Donald Trump is a "Fat-Tail" president; European politics offer both a right-tail risk - German Europhile turn ... ... And a left-tail risk -…
The Tactical Asset Allocation model can provide investment recommendations which diverge from those outlined in our regular weekly publications. The model has a much shorter investment horizon - namely, one month - and thus attempts to…
Highlights The valuation discount on Italian banks still seems insufficient for the sector's excess NPLs. We expect a better long-term buying opportunity sometime next year. Stay underweight the MIB and IBEX versus the…