Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Fixed Income

FICC
The Go-Slow Fed Tightening Cycle

The Fed will hike rates at a pace of 25 bps per quarter until either falling inflation or tighter financial conditions cause it to stop.

Ryan Swift
1 day ago
USMonetary PolicyGov Sovereigns/Treasurys
Essentials
Canada: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain
Our FICC strategists believe that CAD and Canadian equities are likely to lag in the near term, but both should outperform over a three-to-four-year horizon. Housing will remain a drag next year and labor market weakness will likely hurt consumption. Wealth…
Jonathan LaBerge
6 days ago
CanadaFixed IncomeCurrencies
Essentials
On Whether Bonds Will Hedge Stocks During The Next Recession
An overwhelming share of BCA clients expects US Treasuries to be a good hedge against equities in the next recession. In last week's poll, we asked our clients if they think US Treasuries will be a good hedge against equities in the next recession. 72% expect…
6 days ago
Asset AllocationEquitiesFixed Income
Essentials
On Yields And Equities
BCA clients expect equities to struggle when US 10-year yields move above 6%. Half of BCA clients expect equities to be negatively impacted only when the nominal 10-year yield goes above 6%; 40% expect yields above 5.5% to affect equities; only 10% consider…
1 week ago
Fixed IncomeEquities
Essentials
Will US Treasurys Hedge You In The Next Recession? Lessons From High-Debt Countries
Our Portfolio Construction strategists argue that the high US debt burden will not prevent Treasurys from hedging the next recession. Some clients have begun to doubt that government bonds can still protect portfolios, with debt at 121% of GDP and net…
Gabriel Gosselin
1 week ago
Fixed IncomeGov Sovereigns/Treasurys
EssentialsPortfolioFICC
Will US Treasurys Hedge You In The Next Recession? Lessons From High-Debt Countries

History suggests central bank policy determines how bonds behave in recessions, even for high-debt countries. The Fed should be able to cut into a slowdown, making Treasurys an effective equity hedge… for USD-based investors. Foreign investors will see currency depreciation erase their gains.

Juan Correa, Ryan Swift, Robert Timper
2 weeks ago
Fixed IncomeGov Sovereigns/Treasurys
FICC
US Inflation Chartpack: Too Soon To Look For Peak Bond Yields

US inflation came in hot for the second consecutive month in September, though probably not hot enough for the Fed to move its next rate hike up to the October meeting.

Ryan Swift
2 weeks ago
USFixed IncomeInflation
Essentials
Rate Uncertainty, Not Fiscal Fears, Are Driving Treasury Risk Premia
Fiscal fears have not driven US yields higher over the past month. For most of this year, US Treasury yields have increased due to rising policy rate expectations. The US yield curve bear flattened this year, led by an increase in yields at the front end.…
Jonathan LaBerge
2 weeks ago
USFixed IncomeEquities
FICC
Global Model Bond Portfolio Q4/26: A Mild Hiking Cycle Offers A Buyable Dip

We review our Model Bond Portfolio performance for Q3 and look ahead as energy prices continue to drive fixed income markets. Balanced labor markets point to a mild tightening cycle, creating opportunities in government bonds and credit, while inflation-linked bonds continue offering protection against persistent energy risks.

Robert Timper
2 weeks ago
BCA Indicators/ModelFixed Income
Essentials
How To Time The Peak In Bond Yields
Investors should shift to a long duration stance in response to a further shift lower in inflation and/or a material tightening in financial conditions. Global government bond yields have surged since late August, and many investors are wondering whether a…
Jonathan LaBerge
3 weeks ago
Fixed IncomeMonetary PolicyUS

Related Topics

AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bonds Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults See more Topics